Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 7.663513 9.058129 10.595763 12.411524 14.491495 16.793903 19.529461
2025-01-26 5.919180 7.805169 10.080740 13.005954 16.641476 20.984354 26.535100
2025-02-02 4.791071 6.923379 9.694785 13.509630 18.565281 24.969889 33.620428
2025-02-09 4.053093 6.337874 9.501496 14.112194 20.552762 29.107119 41.178787
2025-02-16 3.332098 5.609856 8.953996 14.087768 21.605063 32.015298 47.277855
2025-02-23 2.680462 4.847169 8.211699 13.636015 21.934062 33.873879 51.995576
2025-03-02 2.151988 4.171508 7.481155 13.070358 21.977522 35.254746 56.053989
2025-03-09 1.839182 3.795123 7.158185 13.073819 22.841631 37.850081 62.002556
2025-03-16 1.591413 3.486204 6.895685 13.126071 23.756885 40.551720 68.248308
2025-03-23 1.373904 3.192136 6.612145 13.095619 24.509915 43.022322 74.259967
2025-03-30 1.131053 2.799869 6.090812 12.575925 24.371875 44.029762 77.990711
2025-04-06 0.981904 2.573670 5.848063 12.524959 25.021152 46.341764 83.929490
2025-04-13 0.850182 2.364380 5.617144 12.484108 25.709909 48.811213 90.364874
2025-04-20 0.802446 2.341448 5.764692 13.193949 27.830278 53.869942 101.448317
2025-04-27 0.744891 2.283274 5.828578 13.740023 29.683365 58.572086 112.180675
2025-05-04 0.698419 2.243842 5.926829 14.363083 31.726480 63.725770 123.960945
2025-05-11 0.613578 2.084425 5.730843 14.341868 32.503195 66.631868 131.935048
2025-05-18 0.514880 1.862762 5.354903 13.884114 32.360729 67.826207 136.899495
2025-05-25 0.425450 1.644421 4.950548 13.309831 31.918542 68.411831 140.763449
2025-06-01 0.376167 1.536858 4.806881 13.313446 32.675253 71.310480 149.015069
2025-06-08 0.335055 1.445265 4.690506 13.366559 33.536948 74.454034 157.870049
2025-06-15 0.295750 1.349231 4.546854 13.335634 34.208106 77.252665 166.197437
2025-06-22 0.245071 1.196894 4.219936 12.807663 33.723010 77.699202 170.014201